Chet Holmgren Assists - Player Prop Bet 12/16/2023

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Assists

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Dec 16, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 1:33 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Thunder have played at the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game away from his home court this year, ranking in the 79th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.
The Thunder will likely experience a decrease in opportunities today from competing against the 4th-least up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year (the Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2ndworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.5 offensive boards per game this year.
The Denver Nuggets have allowed the 5th-most offensive boards per game (13.2) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Chet Holmgren will likely experience a decrease in output across the board due to playing away from home in this game.

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