Caleb Martin Points - Player Prop Bet 2/11/2024

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Caleb Martin

NBA · Player Props

Caleb Martin

F · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · Feb 11, 2024

Updated Feb 12, 2024 3:12 AM UTC

Analysis

Caleb Martin Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Caleb Martin has successfully made 55.2% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games at home, 10.1% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the year at home.
The Celtics have played at the 6th-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to raise plays for the Miami Heat.
Caleb Martin has converted 91.7% of his free throws over the last 10 games at home, 16.3% higher than he's converted over the course of the season when playing at home.
Caleb Martin will possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home tends to increase stat production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Celtics is a hard one; they have allowed the 14th-least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PFs this year (14.5).
The 3rd-most sluggish tempo home team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Heat.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 6thworst in in the NBA with a mere 9.6 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have come down with 13.6 offensive boards per game (highest in the NBA) vs. the Celtics (preserving possessions that can produce further opportunities for offense).
This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 3.1 free throws per game (8th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Celtics, finding it difficult to draw fouls.

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