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Brook Lopez

Brook Lopez Points
Player Prop - 11/28/2023

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks

Brook Lopez Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-135/-105).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

When it comes to shooting, the Bucks's outstanding 122.1 points per game away from home settles in as the 2nd-strongest in the league this year.

The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Heat have allowed the 6th-least offensive boards per game (9.7) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

Brook Lopez has made 3.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 more than he's sunk over the course of the season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Compared to last season's 50.8% clip, Brook Lopez's scoring efficiency has regressed this season to 44.4%.

The matchup against Miami is a difficult one; when the Heat are playing at home, they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the league to the other team's starting Cs this year (12.0).

The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 5 games on their home court, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Bucks.

Offensive rebounds save possession and produce bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Bucks rank 4thworst in in the league without the home court advantage with just 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.

This year when they are on their home court, opposing starting Cs have attempted 2.4 foul shots per game (14th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, facing an uphill battle to get to the charity stripe.

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