Bradley Beal Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2024

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Bradley Beal

NBA · Player Props

Bradley Beal

G · Phoenix Suns

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns · Mar 17, 2024

Updated Mar 17, 2024 11:02 PM EST

Analysis

Bradley Beal Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Bradley Beal has sunk 8.8 buckets per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 higher than he's put through the net overall this year.
Among all players in the league, Bradley Beal ranks in the 88th percentile for playing time, posting a whopping 32.9 minutes per game this year.
This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have totaled 6.2 baskets per game (5th-most in the NBA) vs. the Bucks, branding this as a good matchup.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 7th-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Suns grade out best in in the NBA without the home court advantage with 14.2 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Bradley Beal rates in the 88th percentile for personal fouls, averaging a massive 2.6 fouls per game this year.
In terms of shots from behind the three-point arc, the 2nd-least aggressive team in the NBA as the road team over the last 25 games has been the Phoenix Suns.
The Bucks have played at the 10th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which should lead to fewer plays for the Phoenix Suns.
Bradley Beal will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually reduces player performance for all stats.

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