Bradley Beal Points - Player Prop Bet 1/5/2024

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Bradley Beal

NBA · Player Props

Bradley Beal

G · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Miami Heat · Jan 5, 2024

Updated Jan 6, 2024 2:14 AM EST

Analysis

Bradley Beal Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Phoenix Suns rank as the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 20 games playing at home.
This year, opposing starting SGs have tallied 6.3 three attempts per game (30th-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, branding this as a good matchup.
The quickest pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Phoenix Suns.
This year, opposing clubs have snagged 9.4 offensive rebounds per game (fewest in the league) vs. the Heat (diminishing possessions that could otherwise generate additional chances for offense).
Bradley Beal has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 14.0% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

Favors Under

Bradley Beal has totaled just 16.1 points per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 23.2 points per game last season.
Bradley Beal has been called for 2.3 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the highest-fouling players in the NBA (76th percentile).
The Phoenix Suns are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play visiting team in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat).
The Suns rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 5 games when they are at home, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 1.0 foul shots per game (12th-lowest in the league) against the Miami Heat, struggling to get to the free-throw line.

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