Bojan Bogdanovic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

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Bojan Bogdanovic

NBA · Player Props

Bojan Bogdanovic

F · Detroit Pistons

Points

Boston Celtics vs Detroit Pistons · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 29, 2023 12:28 AM EST

Analysis

Bojan Bogdanovic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last year's 6.0 mark, Bojan Bogdanovic's shots from behind the three-point arc have risen this year to 7.5 per game.
Bojan Bogdanovic has averaged 33.1 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 85th percentile.
This year, opposing starting SFs have averaged 5.8 three attempts per game (29th-highest in the league) vs. the Celtics, designating this as a strong matchup.
The Pistons have played at the 5th-fastest pace in the NBA away from their home court this year.
The Detroit Pistons check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Bojan Bogdanovic has averaged 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season.
The Detroit Pistons have been the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games.
The Pistons will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from competing against the 3rd-most lethargic pace offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Boston Celtics).
Over the last 5 games, the other team has snagged 12.4 offensive rebounds per game (4th-most in the league) against the Boston Celtics (lengthening possessions that can bring about more opportunities for offense).
Relative to last year's 4.5 mark, Bojan Bogdanovic's free throws scored have dropped this year to 3.4 per game.

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