Bogdan Bogdanovic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/26/2023

NBA · Player Props

Bogdan Bogdanovic

G · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta Hawks · Dec 26, 2023

Updated Dec 27, 2023 12:58 AM EST

Analysis

Bogdan Bogdanovic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+107/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -148 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Bogdan Bogdanovic measures in the 84th percentile for shots from the field drained, averaging an enormous 6.4 per game this year.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has converted a whopping 3.5 threes per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 2.7 rate last year.
Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have totaled 106.8 points per game (3rd-fewest in the league) against the Bulls, branding this as a hard matchup for offensive productivity.
The Hawks have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games as the visting team.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Hawks grade out 15thbest in in the league on the road with 13.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Favors Under

Bogdan Bogdanovic has been called for 2.4 personal fouls per game while playing away from home this year, placing him in the 76th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.
The Atlanta Hawks will likely suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from squaring off against the slowest pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Bulls).
When playing at home, the Chicago Bulls have given up the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.4) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a strong one for drawing fouls; opposing clubs have attempted a monstrous 23.9 free throws per game over the last 25 games (10th-most in the NBA).
Bogdan Bogdanovic will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city tends to reduce stat production for all stats.