Bogdan Bogdanovic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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Bogdan Bogdanovic

NBA · Player Props

Bogdan Bogdanovic

G · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:33 AM EST

Analysis

Bogdan Bogdanovic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Bogdan Bogdanovic has attempted 15.0 shots per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 2.1 more than he's attempted in all games this season at home.
The 2nd-fastest pace visiting team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Atlanta Hawks.
The Atlanta Hawks have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the home team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they are at home, opposing squads have captured 9.9 offensive rebounds per game (7th-fewest in the league) vs. the Nuggets (lessening possessions that could otherwise create added chances for offense).
Bogdan Bogdanovic has sunk a terrific 2.2 foul shots per game this season, quite a bit more than his 0.8 rate last season.

Favors Under

In contrast to last season's 1.4 rate, Bogdan Bogdanovic's personal fouls per game have increased this season to 3.0.
This matchup is a favorable one for three-point shots; the other team has posted the 6th-highest three percentage in the NBA over the last 15 games at home (38.3%).
The Hawks are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this contest from competing against the 5th-most lethargic pace away offense in the NBA this year (the Nuggets).
This matchup may be a good one for getting to the foul line; when the Nuggets are the visiting squad, opposing teams have attempted a massive 25.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (6th-most in the NBA).

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