Bogdan Bogdanovic Points - Player Prop Bet 11/28/2023

NBA · Player Props

Bogdan Bogdanovic

G · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks · Nov 28, 2023

Updated Nov 29, 2023 12:37 AM EST

Analysis

Bogdan Bogdanovic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+102/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Bogdan Bogdanovic has made a whopping 47.7% of his shots from behind the three-point arc this season, quite a bit higher than his 39.8 rate last season.
Relative to last season's 6.6 mark, Bogdan Bogdanovic's shots from behind the three-point arc have risen this season to 8.0 per game.
This year when they are the visiting team, opposing teams have totaled 33.3 three attempts per game (8th-fewest in the league) against the Cleveland Cavaliers, identifying this as a difficult matchup.
The Hawks have played at the 4th-fastest tempo in the NBA on their home court this year.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Hawks rank 14thbest in in the NBA without the home court advantage with 14.4 offensive boards per game this year.

Favors Under

Bogdan Bogdanovic has committed 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 1.0 more than he's committed in all games this year on the road.
The Atlanta Hawks will likely suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from being pitted against the 7th-slowest tempo visiting offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Cleveland Cavaliers).
While playing on the road, the Cavaliers have given up the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.9) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they are away from home, opposing clubs have attempted 24.2 free throws per game (9th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, finding it easy to get to the foul line.
Bogdan Bogdanovic will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium generally worsens stat production in all facets of the game.