Bogdan Bogdanovic Points - Player Prop Bet 11/11/2023

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Bogdan Bogdanovic

NBA · Player Props

Bogdan Bogdanovic

G · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat · Nov 11, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 12:40 AM EST

Analysis

Bogdan Bogdanovic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Hawks have played at the 2nd-speediest pace in the NBA while playing away from home this year.
The Miami Heat have played at the 9th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games on their home court, which should increase plays for the Hawks.
The Hawks check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
The Miami Heat have allowed the 4th-least offensive boards per game (9.8) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Bogdan Bogdanovic has converted a whopping 100.0% of his foul shots this year, a significant increase from his 86.6 mark last year.

Favors Under

Relative to last year's 3.9 rate, Bogdan Bogdanovic's off-target 3-point shots have risen this year to 4.6 per game.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has accumulated 0.0 technical fouls per game when playing on the road this year, placing him in the 81st percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone when it comes to getting T'ed up.
When it comes to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 4th-least aggressive team in the league since the start of last season has been the Hawks.
This matchup is a strong one for threes; when the Heat are playing at home, opposing clubs have posted the 8th-highest three rate in the NBA against them this year (36.8%).

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