Bogdan Bogdanovic Points - Player Prop Bet 4/18/2023

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Bogdan Bogdanovic

NBA · Player Props

Bogdan Bogdanovic

G · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks · Apr 18, 2023

Updated Apr 18, 2023 11:46 PM EST

Analysis

Bogdan Bogdanovic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+112/-144).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Bogdan Bogdanovic has attempted 7.8 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's attempted overall this year.
This matchup is a difficult one for three-pointers; when the Celtics are on their home court, their opposition have shot for the lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (32.3%).
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 5th-fastest pace in the league over the last 20 games.
The Celtics have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 10 games on their home court, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Hawks.
The Atlanta Hawks rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Atlanta Hawks rank as the least aggressive offense in the league this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc.
When playing at home, the Celtics have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (13.6) in the league to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Bogdan Bogdanovic will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home city tends to decreases player production in all stat categories.

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