Bogdan Bogdanovic Points - Player Prop Bet 4/4/2023

NBA · Player Props

Bogdan Bogdanovic

G · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta Hawks · Apr 4, 2023

Updated Apr 5, 2023 12:18 AM EST

Analysis

Bogdan Bogdanovic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Bogdan Bogdanovic has successfully made 53.9% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games on the road, 7.4% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season while playing away from home.
The matchup vs. Chicago is a good one for 3-pointers; when the Bulls have the home court advantage, opposing starting SGs have averaged the 28th-most shots from downtown per game in the NBA this year (2.6).
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 4th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Atlanta Hawks rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Bogdan Bogdanovic has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 13.9% higher than he's made in all games this season.

Favors Under

The Bulls have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games, which should decrease possessions for the Hawks.
With the home court advantage, the Bulls have allowed the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.0) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Atlanta Hawks have been bad at getting to the free throw line: 9th-worst in the NBA this year, totaling a lowly 22.4 foul shots per game.
The matchup against Chicago may be a difficult one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SGs have attempted a measly 2.5 free throws per game over the last 25 games when the Bulls are on their home court (15th-least in the NBA).
Bogdan Bogdanovic will not enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium generally lowers player production across the board.