Bogdan Bogdanovic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/6/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Bogdan Bogdanovic

G · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks · Mar 6, 2023

Updated Mar 6, 2023 11:02 PM EST

Analysis

Bogdan Bogdanovic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Bogdan Bogdanovic has posted 20.6 points per game over the last 10 games without the home court advantage, 4.1 higher than he's posted over the course of the year on the road.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has sunk 3.5 3-pointers per game over the last 10 games on the road, 0.9 higher than he's converted in all games this year while playing on the road.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has been on the court for 28.6 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 77th percentile.
The Atlanta Hawks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Bogdan Bogdanovic has been called for 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's been called for in all games this season.
The Atlanta Hawks have been the 10th-least aggressive offense in the league on the road this year as it relates to three-point attempts.
This matchup is a positive one for attempts from beyond the arc; their opposition have tallied the 4th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (37.5).
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 9th-slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which should reduce plays for the Hawks.