Bam Adebayo Points - Player Prop Bet 11/12/2024

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Bam Adebayo

NBA · Player Props

Bam Adebayo

C-F · Miami Heat

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat · Nov 12, 2024

Updated Nov 13, 2024 3:54 AM EST

Analysis

Bam Adebayo Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-137/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Bam Adebayo has been on the court for 34.0 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 91st percentile.
The matchup vs. Jalen Duren is a good one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when Duren is playing at home and squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a massive 5.4 treys per game (100th percentile).
The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 10th-quickest tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Pistons).
Offensive rebounds save possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Heat grade out 4th-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.4 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
The clash with Jalen Duren with respect to getting to the free-throw line lands in just the 91st percentile for difficulty with the other team's starting Cs attempting a monstrous 5.0 foul shots per game this year when they are away from home.

Favors Under

In comparison to last year's 30.6% clip, Bam Adebayo's 3-point efficiency has tailed off this year to 8.9%.
The Heat check in as the 9th-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
The Heat have played at the 5th-slowest pace in the league this year.
In comparison to last year's 74.4% mark, Bam Adebayo's free-throw performance has tailed off this year to 62.2%.
Bam Adebayo will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road tends to worsen stat production for all stats.

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