Bam Adebayo Points - Player Prop Bet 3/22/2024

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Bam Adebayo

NBA · Player Props

Bam Adebayo

C-F · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans · Mar 22, 2024

Updated Mar 23, 2024 1:02 AM EST

Analysis

Bam Adebayo Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+104/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Bam Adebayo has sunk 63.5% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games, 11.3% higher than he's converted over the course of the season.
Bam Adebayo has sunk 100.0% of his three-pointers over the last 5 games, 68.8% more than he's converted from three overall this season.
Out of all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo measures in the 90th percentile for playing time, averaging a massive 33.9 minutes per game at home this year.
In regard to shots from downtown, the Miami Heat's impressive 38.3% rate of made threes while on their home court ranks 6th-strongest in the NBA this year.
The matchup vs. Jonas Valanciunas is a favorable one for field goals; when facing other starting Cs this year, they have made a whopping 62.5% of their field goals (97th percentile).

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Bam Adebayo measures in the 81st percentile for personal fouls, putting up a massive 2.3 fouls per game on his home court this year.
The Heat have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the NBA this year.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 6th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games while traveling, which should lead to fewer plays for the Heat.
The Heat have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Jonas Valanciunas is a hard one for getting to the charity stripe; when Valanciunas is on the road and guarding opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a mere 3.1 foul shots per game (21st percentile).

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