Bam Adebayo Points - Player Prop Bet 2/26/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Bam Adebayo

C-F · Miami Heat

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Miami Heat · Feb 26, 2024

Updated Feb 27, 2024 3:10 AM EST

Analysis

Bam Adebayo Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Bam Adebayo has made 9.0 baskets per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 higher than he's put through the net over the course of the year.
Out of all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo places in the 94th percentile for playing time, registering an enormous 34.6 minutes per game this year.
As it relates to shots from downtown, the Heat's terrific 37.4% rate of converted threes ranks 9th-most in the NBA this year.
The Miami Heat are expected to see a rise in plays in this contest from squaring off against the 5th-most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Kings).
The Sacramento Kings have given up the least offensive boards per game (9.1) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Bam Adebayo has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA (85th percentile).
Over the last 10 games when they are the visiting team, their opposition has averaged 51.3% on shot attempts from the field (highest in the NBA) against the Kings, branding this as a positive matchup.
The number of shots from behind the three-point arc attempted against Domantas Sabonis has been very low (1.2 per game) when matched up against other starting Cs this year (7th percentile).
The least up-tempo pace-of-play away offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Heat.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 4thworst in in the NBA away from their home court with a mere 9.4 offensive rebounds per game this year.