Bam Adebayo Points - Player Prop Bet 2/13/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Bam Adebayo

C-F · Miami Heat

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat · Feb 13, 2024

Updated Feb 14, 2024 3:52 AM EST

Analysis

Bam Adebayo Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Bam Adebayo measures in the 90th percentile for field goals sunk, putting up a colossal 7.6 per game this year.
Bam Adebayo has played 34.5 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 94th percentile.
The number of field goal attempts against Brook Lopez has been quite high (12.5 per game) when guarding other starting Cs this year (100th percentile).
The Heat are expected to see a rise in possessions today from squaring off against the 4th-quickest pace home team in the league this year (the Milwaukee Bucks).
The Bucks have allowed the 7th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.4) in the league to opposing squads over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Bam Adebayo has made 10.0% of his attempts from beyond the arc this year, ranking in the 7th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 20 games as the road team.
The Heat check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Brook Lopez is a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; when matched up against other starting Cs this year, they have attempted a lowly 2.5 free throws per game (3rd percentile).
Bam Adebayo ought to see a decline in productivity in all stat categories in light of playing on the visting team in this matchup.