Bam Adebayo Points - Player Prop Bet 2/11/2024

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Bam Adebayo

NBA · Player Props

Bam Adebayo

C-F · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · Feb 11, 2024

Updated Feb 12, 2024 4:06 AM EST

Analysis

Bam Adebayo Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Bam Adebayo has sunk 60.4% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 8.8% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this year.
Bam Adebayo has played 33.8 minutes per game on his home court this year, placing him in the 89th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
The matchup against the Celtics is a difficult one for shots from the field; opposing squads have shot for the lowest FG% in the league over the last 10 games (44.2%).
The number of three-point shots attempted against Kristaps Porzingis has been remarkably high (2.7 per game) when on the visiting team and facing other starting Cs this year (97th percentile).
The Celtics have played at the 6th-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to raise plays for the Miami Heat.

Favors Under

Bam Adebayo has attempted 0.3 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, ranking in the 12th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
The 3rd-most sluggish tempo home team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Heat.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 6thworst in in the NBA with a mere 9.6 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have come down with 13.6 offensive boards per game (highest in the NBA) vs. the Celtics (preserving possessions that can produce further opportunities for offense).

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