Bam Adebayo Points - Player Prop Bet 1/21/2024

NBA · Player Props

Bam Adebayo

C-F · Miami Heat

Points

Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat · Jan 21, 2024

Updated Jan 22, 2024 1:52 AM EST

Analysis

Bam Adebayo Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Bam Adebayo has played 35.0 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 95th percentile.
In terms of shots from behind the three-point arc, the Heat's excellent 38.0% rate of sunk threes places 5th-highest in the NBA this year.
The showdown with Wendell Carter Jr. ranks in just the 100th percentile for difficulty with opposing starting Cs registering a colossal 21.0 points per game this year when they are away from home.
This year when they are on the road, opposing teams have come down with 8.6 offensive rebounds per game (lowest in the league) against the Magic (lessening possessions that could otherwise result in bonus chances for offense).
The clash with Wendell Carter Jr. with respect to getting to the free-throw line lands in only the 100th percentile for difficulty with opposing starting Cs attempting a massive 5.8 foul shots per game this year when they are on the away squad.

Favors Under

Bam Adebayo has converted 12.5% of his treys this year, ranking him in the 7th percentile among all players in the league.
Bam Adebayo has averaged 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the NBA (84th percentile).
The Miami Heat have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Heat are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities in this game from being pitted against the most sluggish tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Orlando Magic).
The Miami Heat check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).