Austin Reaves Points - Player Prop Bet 1/17/2024

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Austin Reaves

NBA · Player Props

Austin Reaves

G · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks · Jan 17, 2024

Updated Jan 18, 2024 1:33 AM EST

Analysis

Austin Reaves Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Austin Reaves rates in the 80th percentile, registering an enormous 16.0 points per game while on his home court this year.
Among all players in the NBA, Austin Reaves slots into the 77th percentile for playing time, averaging a monstrous 30.0 minutes per game while at home this year.
The matchup against the Mavericks is a favorable one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied the 26th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.1).
The rate of field goals converted against Luka Doncic has been quite high (50.0%) when he is on the visiting team and guarding other starting SGs this year (86th percentile).
The 4th-quickest pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Lakers.

Favors Under

Austin Reaves has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 more than he's tallied in all games this year.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the Lakers rank 1stworst in in the NBA with just 8.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.
Over the last 5 games, the other team has nabbed 14.2 offensive boards per game (2nd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks (preserving possessions that can generate further opportunities for offense).
The matchup vs. the Mavericks may be a tough one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a lowly 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (10th-least in the league).

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