Austin Reaves Points - Player Prop Bet 12/23/2023

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Austin Reaves

NBA · Player Props

Austin Reaves

G · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers · Dec 23, 2023

Updated Dec 24, 2023 12:55 AM EST

Analysis

Austin Reaves Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Austin Reaves has put up 14.9 points per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 77th percentile -- near the top of the league by this standard.
The Los Angeles Lakers rank as the most efficient shooting team in the league over the last 15 games as the road team.
This year, opposing clubs have averaged 44.2% on field goals (2nd-weakest in the league) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, making this a hard matchup.
The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Lakers.
The Thunder have played at the 5th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should boost plays for the Los Angeles Lakers.

Favors Under

Offensive rebounds save possession and produce further chances for scoring and assists, but the Lakers rank 1stworst in in the league while playing away from home with just 8.1 offensive rebounds per game this year.
The Thunder have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (13.7) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).
This year, the other team has attempted 24.4 free throws per game (7th-most in the league) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.
Austin Reaves will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city generally lowers player production in all stat categories.

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