Austin Reaves Points - Player Prop Bet 11/19/2023

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Austin Reaves

NBA · Player Props

Austin Reaves

G · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets · Nov 19, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 2:38 AM EST

Analysis

Austin Reaves Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+104/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Austin Reaves has accumulated 1.3 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the least foul-prone players in the NBA (17th percentile).
The Lakers check in as the 10th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA this year.
Over the last 5 games when they are at home, their opposition has secured 9.0 offensive boards per game (10th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Houston Rockets (minimizing possessions that could otherwise bring about added opportunities for offense).
Austin Reaves ought to see an increase in productivity in all stat categories considering enjoying the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Compared to last season's 51.2% rate, Austin Reaves's shooting effectiveness has tailed off this season to 42.9%.
This matchup is a favorable one for three-point attempts; when the Houston Rockets are on their home court, opposing clubs have tallied the most three attempts per game in the league against them since the start of last season (38.6).
The Houston Rockets have played at the 3rd-most sluggish tempo in the league at home this year, which should reduce plays for the Lakers.
The Lakers check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
Austin Reaves has converted a lowly 2.6 free throws per game this year, significantly less than his 3.5 mark last year.

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