Ausar Thompson Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/5/2024

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Ausar Thompson

NBA · Player Props

Ausar Thompson

G-F · Detroit Pistons

Rebounds

Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons · Mar 5, 2024

Updated Mar 6, 2024 12:43 AM EST

Analysis

Ausar Thompson Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-184/+133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -154 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Ausar Thompson has posted 2.1 offensive boards per game this year, putting him among the best players in the league in this category: 92nd percentile.
Ausar Thompson has averaged 33.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games away from home, 8.1 higher than he's averaged over the course of the year on the road.
The Detroit Pistons have played at the 5th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team.
The Detroit Pistons rank as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
With the home court advantage, the Miami Heat have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (8.9) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Ausar Thompson has averaged 2.8 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the NBA (93rd percentile).
The Heat have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the league this year, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Pistons.
Ausar Thompson will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home court tends to decrease player performance in all facets of the game.

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