Ausar Thompson Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2024

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Ausar Thompson

NBA · Player Props

Ausar Thompson

G-F · Detroit Pistons

Rebounds

Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons · Mar 3, 2024

Updated Mar 3, 2024 11:07 PM EST

Analysis

Ausar Thompson Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Ausar Thompson has averaged 2.1 offensive rebounds per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 93rd percentile.
Ausar Thompson has averaged 32.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 8.0 higher than he's averaged overall this season.
The 5th-quickest pace road offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pistons.
The Detroit Pistons have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year, opposing teams have snagged 9.3 offensive boards per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) against the Magic (diminishing possessions that could otherwise lead to more chances for offense).

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Ausar Thompson ranks in the 93rd percentile for personal fouls, posting a massive 2.8 fouls per game this year.
The Pistons will likely see a decline in plays in this game from competing against the most lethargic tempo home team in the league over the last 10 games (the Magic).
Ausar Thompson will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling usually lowers player production in all stat categories.

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