Ausar Thompson Points - Player Prop Bet 2/26/2025

NBA · Player Props

Ausar Thompson

G-F · Detroit Pistons

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Boston Celtics · Feb 26, 2025

Updated Feb 27, 2025 4:04 AM EST

Analysis

Ausar Thompson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Ausar Thompson has sunk 68.2% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games, 12.6% higher than he's made overall this season.
Ausar Thompson has tallied 25.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 4.3 higher than he's tallied overall this season at home.
The matchup vs. Boston is a good one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Boston Celtics are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled the most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.7).
The Pistons have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Detroit Pistons check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Ausar Thompson places in the 21st percentile for three-pointers scored with the home court advantage, registering 0.3 per game this year.
Ausar Thompson has tallied 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, 0.8 higher than he's tallied overall this season at home.
In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Detroit Pistons's feeble 12.2 made threes per game when playing at home places 3rd-lowest in the league this year.
The Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home city, which should reduce plays for the Pistons.
Over the last 5 games when they are on their home court, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 1.5 foul shots per game (5th-lowest in the league) vs. the Celtics, struggling to draw fouls.