Ausar Thompson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/20/2024

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Ausar Thompson

G-F · Detroit Pistons

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks · Jan 20, 2024

Updated Jan 20, 2024 7:59 PM EST

Analysis

Ausar Thompson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-137/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year, their opposition has averaged 33.9% on three-pointers (lowest in the league) vs. the Bucks, designating this as a hard matchup.
The Pistons have played at the 6th-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Pistons will likely see a spike in opportunities in this game from sharing the court with the quickest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 15 games (the Bucks).
The Pistons check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
This matchup is a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing teams have attempted a measly 21.8 foul shots per game when the Milwaukee Bucks are the visiting squad this year (9th-least in the NBA).

Favors Under

Ausar Thompson has converted 10.4% of his attempts from downtown with the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 8th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Among all players in the NBA, Ausar Thompson lands in the 93rd percentile for personal fouls, totaling a monstrous 2.9 fouls per game while on his home court this year.
The Detroit Pistons rank as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league as the home team this year.
The Milwaukee Bucks have given up the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.2) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Among all players in the NBA, Ausar Thompson measures in the 22nd percentile for free-throw prowess on his home court with a a lackluster 65.5% rate this year.