Ausar Thompson Points - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Ausar Thompson

G-F · Detroit Pistons

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Indiana Pacers · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 11:53 PM EST

Analysis

Ausar Thompson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 4th-quickest pace home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pistons.
The Detroit Pistons will likely see an increase in plays in this contest from facing the speediest pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Pacers).
The Pistons check in as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league while playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are playing at home, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 4.4 free throws per game (26th-most in the league) vs. the Pacers, easily managing to draw fouls.
Ausar Thompson will likely see a spike in production in all facets of the game considering controlling the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Ausar Thompson has made 11.7% of his three-point shots with the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 7th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Ausar Thompson has averaged 3.4 personal fouls per game on the road this year, ranking in the 97th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
The Detroit Pistons have been the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA playing at home this year.
The matchup against Indiana is a tough one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Indiana Pacers are at home, opposing starting PFs have tallied the 15th-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (2.2).
Playing at home, the Indiana Pacers have given up the 7th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.1) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).