Anthony Edwards Points - Player Prop Bet 5/6/2024

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Anthony Edwards

NBA · Player Props

Anthony Edwards

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · May 6, 2024

Updated May 7, 2024 2:47 AM EST

Analysis

Anthony Edwards Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Anthony Edwards has scored 33.4 points per game over the last 5 games, 7.0 higher than he's scored over the course of the year.
Anthony Edwards has tallied 35.4 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 96th percentile.
The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.
The matchup against Denver is a strong one; when the Denver Nuggets are on their home court, they have given up the 2nd-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting SGs over the last 5 games (20.4).
Anthony Edwards has converted 6.6 foul shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.2 more than he's put through the net overall this year.

Favors Under

The Timberwolves have played at the 6th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games when playing on the road.
The Nuggets have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Timberwolves.
The Timberwolves have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
Anthony Edwards will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage usually worsens player performance for all stats.

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