Anthony Edwards Points - Player Prop Bet 4/5/2024

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Anthony Edwards

NBA · Player Props

Anthony Edwards

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Apr 5, 2024

Updated Apr 6, 2024 2:29 AM EST

Analysis

Anthony Edwards Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-141/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Anthony Edwards has averaged 31.1 points per game over the last 10 games without the home court advantage, 3.9 more than he's averaged over the course of the season on the road.
Anthony Edwards has tallied 35.2 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 96th percentile.
The Minnesota Timberwolves will likely see a spike in opportunities today from being pitted against the quickest tempo home team in the league over the last 10 games (the Suns).
The Timberwolves check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Anthony Edwards has converted a terrific 5.3 free throws per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 4.1 rate last year.

Favors Under

The Timberwolves check in as the 7th-least aggressive offense in the league when playing on the road this year when it comes to three-point attempts.
This year, the other team's starting SGs have averaged 1.5 3-pointers per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Phoenix Suns, identifying this as a difficult matchup.
The 5th-most lethargic pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling tends to worsen player performance in all stat categories.

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