Anfernee Simons Points - Player Prop Bet 1/3/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Anfernee Simons

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Portland Trail Blazers · Jan 3, 2024

Updated Jan 4, 2024 1:24 AM EST

Analysis

Anfernee Simons Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In contrast to last year's 16.9 rate, Anfernee Simons's shots have spiked this year to 20.7 per game.
Anfernee Simons has attempted 9.6 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, putting him in the 100th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Anfernee Simons has tallied 34.2 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 91st percentile.
The matchup against Dallas is a positive one for 3-point shots; when the Dallas Mavericks are on their home court, the other team's starting SGs have averaged the 28th-most shots from downtown per game in the NBA this year (2.8).
The Portland Trail Blazers will likely see an increase in possessions in this contest from being pitted against the 5th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Mavericks).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Anfernee Simons measures in the 75th percentile for technical fouls, logging a monstrous 0.0 fouls per game when playing away from home this year.
The Trail Blazers rank as the lowest scoring offense in the league when playing on the road this year.
The 5th-least up-tempo pace away offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Portland Trail Blazers.
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing squads have collected 12.3 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Mavericks (preserving possessions that can lead to added chances for offense).
The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks may be a tough one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a mere 1.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games (10th-least in the league).