Anfernee Simons Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

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Anfernee Simons

NBA · Player Props

Anfernee Simons

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 29, 2023 1:30 AM EST

Analysis

Anfernee Simons Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting SGs have averaged 54.7% on field goals (29th-best in the league) against the San Antonio Spurs, resulting in a positive matchup.
The Spurs have played at the quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Portland Trail Blazers.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and create additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Trail Blazers grade out 15thbest in in the league on their home court with 14.6 offensive boards per game this year.
Without the home court advantage, the Spurs have allowed the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.1) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 3.2 free throws per game (23rd-highest in the NBA) against the San Antonio Spurs, easily managing to get to the charity stripe.

Favors Under

In terms of scoring, the Portland Trail Blazers's feeble 108.7 points per game measures as the 2nd-fewest in the NBA this year.
The Trail Blazers have played at the 8th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA playing at home this year.

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