Andrew Nembhard Points - Player Prop Bet 12/2/2023

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Andrew Nembhard

NBA · Player Props

Andrew Nembhard

G-F · Indiana Pacers

Points

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers · Dec 2, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 1:13 AM EST

Analysis

Andrew Nembhard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With respect to offense, the Indiana Pacers's superb 127.9 points per game when playing away from home ranks highest in the league this year.
The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest pace in the league when playing at home this year.
The Pacers are expected to see a spike in plays in this game from facing the 9th-fastest pace-of-play away offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Miami Heat).
This year when they are playing at home, opposing squads have collected 9.6 offensive boards per game (5th-lowest in the league) vs. the Heat (diminishing possessions that could otherwise spark extra opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Compared to last season's 33.3% mark, Andrew Nembhard's three-point prowess has regressed this season to 2.9%.
The matchup vs. Miami is a difficult one; when the Heat have the home court advantage, they have given up the 10th-least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs since the start of last season (16.4).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA as the away team with a mere 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
Andrew Nembhard has made just 50.0% of his foul shot attempts this year, significantly less than his 79.5 rate last year.
The matchup against Miami is a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting PGs have attempted a mere 3.2 foul shots per game since the start of last season when the Heat are the visiting squad (14th-least in the league).

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