Alperen Sengun Points - Player Prop Bet 11/20/2023

NBA · Player Props

Alperen Sengun

C · Houston Rockets

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets · Nov 20, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 3:07 AM EST

Analysis

Alperen Sengun Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Alperen Sengun has sunk a whopping 8.6 shots made from the field per game this year, significantly higher than his 5.9 rate last year.
Alperen Sengun has been on the court for 31.2 minutes per game playing at home this year, ranking in the 75th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.
The matchup vs. Golden State is a good one; when the Golden State Warriors are the visiting squad, they have given up the 28th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting Cs this year (17.6).
The Warriors have played at the 9th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games in their home city, which should increase opportunities for the Houston Rockets.
This year when they are on the road, the opposing team's starting Cs have attempted 7.1 free throws per game (30th-most in the league) against the Golden State Warriors, finding it easy to draw fouls.

Favors Under

Alperen Sengun has accumulated 4.5 personal fouls per game this season, a significant increase from his 3.2 fouls per game last season.
The Houston Rockets have played at the 3rd-slowest tempo in the NBA as the away team this year.
The Houston Rockets have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA away from their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 7 games when they are on their home court, opposing clubs have snagged 10.9 offensive rebounds per game (7th-most in the league) against the Warriors (retaining possessions that can bring about more opportunities for offense).
Alperen Sengun has converted a lowly 51.6% of his free throws this season, significantly less than his 66.8 mark last season.