Alex Caruso Points - Player Prop Bet 10/24/2024

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Alex Caruso

NBA · Player Props

Alex Caruso

G · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Oct 24, 2024

Updated Oct 25, 2024 2:09 AM EST

Analysis

Alex Caruso Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Alex Caruso comes in at the 92nd percentile for 3-point prowess with a very good 41.2% rate since the start of last season.
The Thunder have been the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA since the start of last season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 10th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league since the start of last season.
The matchup vs. Denver may be a favorable one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting SGs have attempted an enormous 5.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Denver Nuggets are playing at home (2nd-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Alex Caruso has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game since the start of last season, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the league (88th percentile).
The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a difficult one; they have allowed the least points per game in the league to the opposition's starting SGs over the last 25 games (15.6).
The Nuggets have played at the 5th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league since the start of last season, which ought to decrease plays for the Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Alex Caruso will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage generally decreases player production across the board.

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