Alex Caruso Points - Player Prop Bet 4/17/2024

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Alex Caruso

NBA · Player Props

Alex Caruso

G · Chicago Bulls

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta Hawks · Apr 17, 2024

Updated Apr 18, 2024 1:36 AM EST

Analysis

Alex Caruso Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-142/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Alex Caruso has successfully made 49.5% of his 3-point attempts over the last 15 games, 8.5% more than he's sunk in all games this season.
Alex Caruso has played 35.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.7 more than he's played over the course of the season.
The matchup against the Hawks is a strong one for field goals; the other team's starting SFs have put up the highest field goal rate in the league this year (55.3%).
The Bulls will likely see a spike in possessions today from sharing the court with the 4th-most up-tempo tempo road team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Hawks).
The Bulls rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games with the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Alex Caruso measures in the 87th percentile for personal fouls, totaling an enormous 2.4 fouls per game on his home court this year.
In terms of scoring, the Bulls's subpar 111.5 points per game while on their home court rates 7th-worst in the league this year.
The Chicago Bulls have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA playing at home this year.
Over the last 20 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.0 foul shots per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Hawks, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.

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