Alex Caruso Points - Player Prop Bet 3/11/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Alex Caruso

G · Chicago Bulls

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 11, 2024

Updated Mar 12, 2024 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Alex Caruso Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Alex Caruso has scored a terrific 9.6 points per game this year, significantly higher than his 5.8 points per game last year.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home stadium, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Chicago Bulls.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Chicago Bulls grade out 3rd-best in in the league as the home team with 14.6 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
Alex Caruso has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games at home, 23.8% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season with the home court advantage.
Alex Caruso will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing with the home court advantage usually raises player production for all stats.

Favors Under

Alex Caruso has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, putting him in the 86th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
When it comes to shooting, the Chicago Bulls's lackluster 111.4 points per game when playing at home ranks 5th-fewest in the league over the last 25 games.
The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks is a tough one; they have allowed the 2nd-least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting SFs over the last 15 games (11.4).
The 2nd-slowest pace team in the league this year has been the Chicago Bulls.
The matchup against Dallas is a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted just 1.6 free throws per game this year when the Mavericks are on the road (2nd-least in the league).