Alex Caruso Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

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Alex Caruso

NBA · Player Props

Alex Caruso

G · Chicago Bulls

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Indiana Pacers · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 29, 2023 12:38 AM EST

Analysis

Alex Caruso Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Alex Caruso comes in at the 84th percentile for scoring prowess with a an excellent 54.6% rate this year.
Among all players in the league, Alex Caruso rates in the 91st percentile for 3-point prowess with a a stellar 43.9% rate this year.
This year, the other team's starting SGs have scored 19.0 points per game (30th-highest in the NBA) against the Indiana Pacers, identifying this as a favorable matchup for offensive production.
The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which should lead to more plays for the Bulls.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, and the Bulls rank 6thbest in in the NBA with 12.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

Favors Under

Alex Caruso has averaged 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's averaged in all games this season.
When it comes to scoring, the Chicago Bulls's unimpressive 111.4 points per game as the home team ranks 4th-worst in the league over the last 5 games.
The most lethargic pace-of-play team in the NBA this year has been the Bulls.
The Pacers have allowed the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.6) in the league to opposing squads over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).

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