Alex Caruso Points - Player Prop Bet 11/18/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Alex Caruso

G · Chicago Bulls

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat · Nov 18, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 1:08 AM EST

Analysis

Alex Caruso Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Alex Caruso has registered an impressive 9.5 points per game this season, a significant increase from his 5.8 points per game last season.
Alex Caruso has attempted 3.9 three-pointers per game this season, quite a bit higher than his 2.2 rate last season.
The matchup vs. Miami is a strong one for shot attempts from downtown; when the Heat have the home court advantage, opposing starting SGs have averaged the 25th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.6).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Chicago Bulls rank 3rdbest in in the league with 10.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 7 games.
This matchup is a tough one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing squads have attempted a measly 19.6 foul shots per game when the Heat have the home court advantage this year (3rd-least in the league).

Favors Under

Alex Caruso has been called for 2.9 personal fouls per game at home this year, ranking in the 86th percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled.
The Chicago Bulls have been the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
The Chicago Bulls have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league on their home court this year.
The Chicago Bulls are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from squaring off against the 5th-slowest tempo home offense in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat).
The Miami Heat have given up the 8th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.4) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).