Alex Caruso Points - Player Prop Bet 11/4/2023

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Alex Caruso

NBA · Player Props

Alex Caruso

G · Chicago Bulls

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Chicago Bulls · Nov 4, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 12:57 AM EST

Analysis

Alex Caruso Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+113/-147).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Alex Caruso has successfully made 36.6% of his shots from behind the three-point arc since the start of last season, putting him in the 76th percentile out of all players in the league.
The Chicago Bulls check in as the 4th-most efficient shooting team in the NBA when playing at home since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season when they are playing at home, the other team has grabbed 9.9 offensive rebounds per game (8th-fewest in the NBA) against the Nuggets (minimizing possessions that could otherwise generate more opportunities for offense).
Since the start of last season when they are the visiting squad, the other team has attempted 22.2 free throws per game (7th-fewest in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets, finding it difficult to draw fouls.

Favors Under

Alex Caruso has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game on the road since the start of last season, ranking him in the 83rd percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.
The least up-tempo tempo team in the league this year has been the Chicago Bulls.
The Bulls are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from facing the 6th-slowest pace away offense in the league this year (the Nuggets).
The Chicago Bulls rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA on the road since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Alex Caruso figures to experience a decrease in output in all facets of the game in light of being on the road in this contest.

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