Alex Caruso Points - Player Prop Bet 4/14/2023

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Alex Caruso

NBA · Player Props

Alex Caruso

G · Chicago Bulls

Points

Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls · Apr 14, 2023

Updated Apr 14, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Alex Caruso Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Alex Caruso has made 64.4% of his field goals over the last 5 games on the road, 20.6% more than he's sunk over the course of the year without the home court advantage.
Alex Caruso has successfully made 59.7% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games on the road, 27.9% higher than he's made from beyond the arc overall this year while playing away from home.
The Chicago Bulls rank as the 7th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 10 games away from home.
The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.1) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Alex Caruso has averaged 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the league (82nd percentile).
The matchup vs. the Heat is a difficult one for shots from the field; the other team's starting PGs have averaged the 15th-least field goals per game in the NBA this year (5.8).
The Chicago Bulls have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Bulls.
The Chicago Bulls check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

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