Alex Caruso Points - Player Prop Bet 2/28/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Alex Caruso

G · Chicago Bulls

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Chicago Bulls · Feb 28, 2023

Updated Feb 28, 2023 11:53 PM EST

Analysis

Alex Caruso Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Alex Caruso has attempted 4.6 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's attempted in all games this season.
Alex Caruso has tallied 33.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games away from home, 4.3 more than he's tallied over the course of the season on the road.
The Chicago Bulls have been the 4th-most efficient shooting team in the league this year.
The Chicago Bulls have played at the 7th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
When playing at home, the Raptors have allowed the 5th-least offensive rebounds per game (7.6) in the league to opposing teams over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Alex Caruso has committed 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the league (88th percentile).
The matchup against the Raptors is a tough one for threes; opposing starting PGs have shot for the 14th-lowest three percentage in the NBA this year (29.6%).
The Raptors have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Bulls.
The Chicago Bulls rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
Alex Caruso will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court usually worsens stat production in all facets of the game.