Alex Caruso Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 11/18/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Alex Caruso

G · Chicago Bulls

Made 3 Point Shots

Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat · Nov 18, 2023

Updated Nov 18, 2023 10:07 PM EST

Analysis

Alex Caruso Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Alex Caruso has converted 72.0% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games at home, 11.3% more than he's converted from downtown over the course of the year while on his home court.
Alex Caruso has attempted 3.9 three-pointers per game this season, quite a bit higher than his 2.2 rate last season.
The matchup vs. Miami is a strong one for shot attempts from downtown; when the Heat have the home court advantage, opposing starting SGs have averaged the 25th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.6).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Chicago Bulls rank 3rdbest in in the league with 10.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 7 games.
Alex Caruso figures to see an increase in production in all facets of the game due to having the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Alex Caruso has been called for 2.9 personal fouls per game at home this year, ranking in the 86th percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled.
As it relates to shot attempts from downtown, the 8th-least aggressive team in the NBA away from home this year has been the Chicago Bulls.
The Chicago Bulls have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league on their home court this year.
The Chicago Bulls are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from squaring off against the 5th-slowest tempo home offense in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat).
The Miami Heat have given up the 8th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.4) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).