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Al Horford

Al Horford Points
Player Prop - 3/2/2025

Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets

Al Horford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Al Horford has made 57.1% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games at home, 14.5% more than he's made from beyond the arc in all games this year while playing at home.

The matchup against Denver is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when the Nuggets are the visiting team, opposing starting PFs have shot for the 5th-highest 3-point rate in the league this year (44.8%).

The Nuggets have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise possessions for the Boston Celtics.

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and create extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 10th-best in in the league at home with 11.9 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

Al Horford will hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home stadium tends to increase player performance in all facets of the game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Al Horford has successfully made a measly 39.9% of his field goal attempts this year, significantly less than his 51.3 rate last year.

The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games.

As a team, the Celtics have been bad at getting to the foul line in recent games: worst in the league over the last 25 games, averaging just 18.3 free throw attempts per game.

This year, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 2.6 foul shots per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Denver Nuggets, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

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