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Al Horford

Al Horford Points
Player Prop - 5/29/2023

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

Al Horford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Al Horford has made an impressive 2.1 3-pointers per game this season, a significant increase from his 1.5 rate last season.

The matchup against Bam Adebayo is a favorable one for 3-point shots; when defending fellow starting Cs this year, they have made a monstrous 31.8% of their 3-point attempts (100th percentile).

The Boston Celtics rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).

On the road, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Al Horford will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court tends to boosts stat production in all facets of the game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Al Horford has sunk 37.2% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games at home, -9.2% less than he's sunk overall this season when playing at home.

Al Horford has committed 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's committed over the course of the season.

The matchup against the Heat is a tough one; they have allowed the 14th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting Cs this year (11.8).

The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games.

The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games away from their home stadium, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Celtics.

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