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Al Horford

Al Horford Points
Player Prop - 5/17/2023

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

Al Horford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Al Horford has converted a whopping 2.2 treys per game this season, quite a bit higher than his 1.5 mark last season.

Al Horford has played 30.3 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 80th percentile.

The Boston Celtics check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.

The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup against Miami may be a strong one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a massive 5.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Heat are away from home (29th-most in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Al Horford has successfully made 36.0% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, -9.6% less than he's sunk in all games this year.

The matchup against Miami is a difficult one for threes; when the Heat are on the road, the other team's starting PFs have posted the 15th-lowest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (26.6%).

The Boston Celtics have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games.

The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games while traveling, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Celtics.

The Boston Celtics have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

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