A.J. Green Points - Player Prop Bet 11/13/2024

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A.J. Green

NBA · Player Props

A.J. Green

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Detroit Pistons · Nov 13, 2024

Updated Nov 14, 2024 12:49 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Green Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+104/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

AJ Green has successfully made 4.4 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 more than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the year.
AJ Green has played 26.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 9.8 more than he's played overall this year.
The Milwaukee Bucks have been the 6th-most aggressive offense in the league while at home this year as it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc.
AJ Green has made a whopping 100.0% of his foul shot attempts this season, significantly more than his 89.7 rate last season.
Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 4.8 foul shots per game (2nd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Detroit Pistons, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Pistons is a tough one for threes; the other team's starting SGs have compiled the 2nd-lowest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (27.6%).
The 7th-slowest tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Bucks.
The Milwaukee Bucks will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play visiting team in the NBA this year (the Pistons).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and bring about further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Milwaukee Bucks grade out 4thworst in in the league with only 8.7 offensive boards per game this year.

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