A.J. Green Points - Player Prop Bet 11/12/2024

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A.J. Green

NBA · Player Props

A.J. Green

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors · Nov 12, 2024

Updated Nov 13, 2024 1:04 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Green Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-119/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

AJ Green has attempted 5.6 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's attempted over the course of the year.
AJ Green has averaged a whopping 15.6 minutes per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 11.0 minutes per game last year.
Out of all players in the league, AJ Green measures in the 24th percentile for personal fouls, posting a measly 0.7 fouls per game this year.
The Bucks check in as the 10th-highest scoring offense in the NBA while playing at home this year.
The Milwaukee Bucks will likely get a boost in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the 10th-speediest tempo offense in the league over the last 10 games (the Toronto Raptors).

Favors Under

This year when they are at home, the opposition's starting SGs have averaged 4.3 three attempts per game (2nd-fewest in the league) vs. the Raptors, branding this as a hard matchup.
The 5th-slowest pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Milwaukee Bucks grade out 4thworst in in the league with a mere 8.4 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 1.2 free throws per game (fewest in the league) against the Toronto Raptors, facing an uphill battle to get to the charity stripe.

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