Aaron Nesmith Points - Player Prop Bet 3/23/2026

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Aaron Nesmith

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Nesmith

G-F · Indiana Pacers

Points

Orlando Magic vs Indiana Pacers · Mar 23, 2026

Updated Mar 23, 2026 10:53 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Nesmith has totaled 20.4 points per game over the last 5 games, 6.8 higher than he's totaled overall this season.
When it comes to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 4th-most aggressive offense in the league while on the road over the last 10 games has been the Pacers.
This year, the opposition's starting SGs have tallied 14.8 shot attempts per game (highest in the NBA) against the Magic, designating this as a strong matchup.
The 4th-speediest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Indiana Pacers.
The matchup against the Magic may be a positive one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a monstrous 5.4 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (most in the NBA).

Favors Under

The Orlando Magic have played at the 9th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games at home, which should reduce plays for the Indiana Pacers.
The Indiana Pacers rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

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