Aaron Nesmith Points - Player Prop Bet 3/21/2026

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Aaron Nesmith

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Nesmith

G-F · Indiana Pacers

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Indiana Pacers · Mar 21, 2026

Updated Mar 21, 2026 11:58 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-122/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Nesmith has posted 20.4 points per game over the last 5 games, 6.8 more than he's posted in all games this season.
The Pacers check in as the 4th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games as the visting team in regard to shots from behind the three-point arc.
The 5th-most up-tempo pace away team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Indiana Pacers.
The matchup against San Antonio is a good one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SFs have attempted a monstrous 3.5 free throws per game this year when the Spurs are on their home court (6th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

The matchup against the Spurs is a hard one for shots from the field; opposing starting SFs have posted the lowest Field Goal% in the NBA this year (36.0%).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with just 8.8 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

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