Aaron Nesmith Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2026

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Aaron Nesmith

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Nesmith

G-F · Indiana Pacers

Points

New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers · Mar 17, 2026

Updated Mar 17, 2026 11:33 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Nesmith has registered 17.8 points per game over the last 5 games, 4.3 higher than he's registered in all games this season.
In terms of shots from behind the three-point arc, the 6th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Pacers.
This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting SGs have logged 21.5 points per game (most in the league) against the New York Knicks, resulting in a favorable matchup for offensive productivity.
The Pacers have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games while playing away from home.

Favors Under

The Indiana Pacers will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 4th-most lethargic tempo home offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Knicks).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers grade out 1stworst in in the league with just 8.8 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.
Over the last 10 games when they are on the road, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 1.9 foul shots per game (3rd-fewest in the league) vs. the Knicks, struggling to get to the free-throw line.

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